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Marisca Mersch vs Union Titus Petange — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
5/18/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 29Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch38%
×Draw23%
Union Titus Petange39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.60
Union Titus Petange
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
Union Titus Petange
1.26

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
Union Titus Petange
1.59

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

Union Titus Petange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
61%
Marisca Mersch or Union Titus Petange
77%
Draw or Union Titus Petange
62%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
19%
Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
80%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
47%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
22%
Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
80%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
48%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
49%
Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Union Titus Petange attack 1.26 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
38%
level
23%
Union Titus Petange scores more
39%

Union Titus Petange at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Marisca Mersch 1–4 Union Titus Petange

Union Titus Petange beat Marisca Mersch 4-1 in National Division on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.