Union Titus Petange 2–1 Fola Esch: Result & Stats

Union Titus Petange

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fola Esch

9/23/2023

National Division · Round 7Stade Municipal de Pétange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Union Titus Petange45%

×Draw23%

Fola Esch32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Titus PetangeExpected goals in this matchFola Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.48

Union Titus Petange

1.80

Fola Esch

1.48

Union Titus Petange creates 22% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 97 away

1.54

creates per match

1.65

1.32

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Union Titus Petange

1.54

Fola Esch

1.65

allows per match

Union Titus Petange

1.32

Fola Esch

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

Fola Esch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw

68%

Union Titus Petange or Fola Esch

77%

Draw or Fola Esch

55%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

24%

Fola Esch wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

83%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

54%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

27%

Fola Esch 1+ goals

77%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

43%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

59%

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.54 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more

45%

level

23%

Fola Esch scores more

32%

Union Titus Petange at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff