Fola Esch 1–3 Union Titus Petange: Result & Stats

Fola Esch

FT

1 – 3

Union Titus Petange

11/20/2024

Cup · Round of 32Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fola Esch22%

×Draw18%

Union Titus Petange60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fola EschExpected goals in this matchUnion Titus Petange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.75

Fola Esch

1.65

Union Titus Petange

2.75

Union Titus Petange creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

3.00

2.50

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Fola Esch

2.00

Union Titus Petange

3.00

allows per match

Fola Esch

2.50

Union Titus Petange

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

Union Titus Petange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw

40%

Fola Esch or Union Titus Petange

82%

Draw or Union Titus Petange

78%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+

10%

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals

81%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

49%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

23%

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

93%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

75%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

27%

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 2.00 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Union Titus Petange attack 3.00 + Fola Esch defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fola Esch scores more

22%

level

18%

Union Titus Petange scores more

60%

Union Titus Petange at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff