Union Titus Petange 3–2 Etzella Ettelbruck

Union Titus Petange

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Etzella Ettelbruck

V. Steinmetz 90+4', 58'

António Gomes 9'

E. Curic 83'

L. Rapaille 61'

5/21/2023

National Division · Round 30Stade Municipal de Pétange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Union Titus Petange51%

×Draw23%

Etzella Ettelbruck27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Titus PetangeExpected goals in this matchEtzella Ettelbruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.31

Union Titus Petange

1.88

Etzella Ettelbruck

1.31

Union Titus Petange creates 44% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 73 away

1.48

creates per match

1.27

1.34

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Union Titus Petange

1.48

Etzella Ettelbruck

1.27

allows per match

Union Titus Petange

1.34

Etzella Ettelbruck

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw

73%

Union Titus Petange or Etzella Ettelbruck

77%

Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck

49%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

28%

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

85%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

56%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

29%

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals

73%

Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals

38%

Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

65%

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.48 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.88

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.27 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more

51%

level

23%

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more

27%

Union Titus Petange at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

António Gomes

52'

J. Séry← D. da Mota

52'

L. Rapaille← S. Kalisa

57'

E. Curic← F. Kyereh

58'

V. Steinmetz

61'

L. Rapaille

66'

D. Stumpf← J. Nsanzimana

73'

E. Preljević← K. Tekiela

76'

Zé Peti← J. Mawatu

83'

E. Curic

90+4'

V. Steinmetz

Union

Etzella

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

Manager: Y. Kakoko

66'▲D. Stumpf←▼J. Nsanzimana

73'▲E. Preljević←▼K. Tekiela

76'▲Zé Peti←▼J. Mawatu

Union Titus Petange substitutes

StumpfPreljevićPeti

Manager: B. Alves

52'▲J. Séry←▼D. da Mota

52'▲L. Rapaille←▼S. Kalisa

57'▲E. Curic←▼F. Kyereh

Etzella Ettelbruck substitutes

SéryRapailleCuric

Match Recap: Union Titus Petange vs Etzella Ettelbruck

Union Titus Petange beat Etzella Ettelbruck 3-2 in National Division on May 21, 2023.

Goals: António Gomes (9'), V. Steinmetz (58', 90+4'), L. Rapaille (61'), E. Curic (83').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange in Pétange.

Union Titus Petange vs Etzella Ettelbruck — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Titus Petange vs Etzella Ettelbruck