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Union Titus Petange vs Etzella Ettelbruck — Cup 2020

Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petangeadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
R. Goncalves 90+4'
N. Jeck 90+2'
4/20/2022CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Municipal de Pétange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Titus Petange18%
×Draw19%
Etzella Ettelbruck63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Titus Petange
1.22
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.42

Etzella Ettelbruck creates 98% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Union Titus Petange
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
3.33

allows per match

Union Titus Petange
1.50
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.44

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par
Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw
37%
Union Titus Petange or Etzella Ettelbruck
81%
Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck
82%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
7%
Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
70%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
34%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
12%
Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
91%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
69%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
22%
Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.00 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 3.33 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more
18%
level
19%
Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
63%

Etzella Ettelbruck at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Etzella Ettelbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
A. Nwanne
80'
A. Nwanne
90+2'
N. Jeck
90+4'
R. Goncalves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Titus Petange vs Etzella Ettelbruck

Union Titus Petange beat Etzella Ettelbruck 2-0 in Cup on April 20, 2022.

Goals: N. Jeck (90+2'), R. Goncalves (90+4').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange in Pétange.