Union Titus Petange 2–0 Blue Boys Muhlenbach

Union Titus Petange

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

E. Mokrani 24', 6'

10/27/2019

National Division · Round 10Stade Municipal de Pétange (Péiteng (Pétange))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Titus Petange58%

×Draw21%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Titus PetangeExpected goals in this matchBlue Boys Muhlenbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.23

Union Titus Petange

2.13

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.23

Union Titus Petange creates 73% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Union Titus Petange

1.50

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.13

allows per match

Union Titus Petange

1.33

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

Blue Boys Muhlenbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw

78%

Union Titus Petange or Blue Boys Muhlenbach

79%

Draw or Blue Boys Muhlenbach

42%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

35%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

88%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

63%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

35%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals

71%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals

35%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

73%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 111 matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.50 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.13 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more

58%

level

21%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more

22%

Union Titus Petange at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Mokrani

19'

Munir Dragulovcanin← T. Makonda

24'

E. Mokrani

38'

Amel Ćosić← R. Diomisio

69'

J. Kalonji← E. Gashi

72'

D. Dragolovcanin← Amel Ćosić

79'

J. Soladio← E. Mokrani

88'

D. Gaspar← E. Bijelic

Union

Blue

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Mokrani

▼

Gashi

Manager: Fangueiro

69'▲J. Kalonji←▼E. Gashi

79'▲J. Soladio←▼E. Mokrani

88'▲D. Gaspar←▼E. Bijelic

Union Titus Petange substitutes

KalonjiSoladioGaspar

Manager: F. Buyse

19'▲Munir Dragulovcanin←▼T. Makonda

38'▲Amel Ćosić←▼R. Diomisio

72'▲D. Dragolovcanin←▼Amel Ćosić

Blue Boys Muhlenbach substitutes

DragulovcaninĆosićDragolovcanin

National Division: Union Titus Petange 2–0 Blue Boys Muhlenbach

Union Titus Petange beat Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2-0 in National Division on October 27, 2019.

Goals: E. Mokrani (6', 24').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange (Péiteng (Pétange)).

Union Titus Petange vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

National Division: Union Titus Petange 2–0 Blue Boys Muhlenbach