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Blue Boys Muhlenbach vs Union Titus Petange — National Division 2018

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
CANC
00:00
Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
4/19/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 22Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach38%
×Draw24%
Union Titus Petange38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.49
Union Titus Petange
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 110 away

creates per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.38
Union Titus Petange
1.25

allows per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.75
Union Titus Petange
1.60

finishing

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par
Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Boys Muhlenbach ↓

Union Titus Petange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or draw
62%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach or Union Titus Petange
76%
Draw or Union Titus Petange
62%

Winning margin

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
18%
Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
77%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
44%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
19%
Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
78%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
44%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
50%
Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.60 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.38 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Union Titus Petange attack 1.25 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
38%
level
24%
Union Titus Petange scores more
38%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blue Boys Muhlenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blue Boys Muhlenbach host Union Titus Petange

April 19, 2020: Blue Boys Muhlenbach take on Union Titus Petange in National Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach host Union Titus Petange at Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.