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Unión Sur Yaiza vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
A. Machin Reguera 34'
9/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza53%
×Draw26%
Real Unión de Tenerife21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.49
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.82

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 82% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.85
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.05
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw
79%
Unión Sur Yaiza or Real Unión de Tenerife
74%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
47%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
27%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
77%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
44%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
19%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
56%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
20%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
72%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
53%
level
26%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
21%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Machin Reguera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Real Unión de Tenerife

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Real Unión de Tenerife 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Machin Reguera (34').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza in Yaiza (Lanzarote).