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Real Unión de Tenerife vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
A. Rodriguez 83'
J. Callejo 68'
2/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Campo de Fútbol de La Salud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife49%
×Draw28%
Unión Sur Yaiza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.36
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.82

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.41
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw
77%
Real Unión de Tenerife or Unión Sur Yaiza
72%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
51%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
24%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
74%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
39%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
16%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
56%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
20%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
69%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
49%
level
28%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
23%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
J. Callejo
83'
A. Rodriguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Real Unión de Tenerife 2–0 Unión Sur Yaiza

Real Unión de Tenerife beat Unión Sur Yaiza 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 7, 2026.

Goals: J. Callejo (68'), A. Rodriguez (83').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de La Salud in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.