Unión Sur Yaiza 1–0 Mensajero: Result & Stats

Unión Sur Yaiza

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mensajero

4/19/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza50%

×Draw25%

Mensajero25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión Sur YaizaExpected goals in this matchMensajero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.06

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.60

Mensajero

1.06

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 51% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 76 away

1.85

creates per match

1.08

1.05

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.85

Mensajero

1.08

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.05

Mensajero

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Mensajero →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw

75%

Unión Sur Yaiza or Mensajero

75%

Draw or Mensajero

50%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

26%

Mensajero wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

80%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

47%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

22%

Mensajero 1+ goals

65%

Mensajero 2+ goals

29%

Mensajero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

66%

Mensajero (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

50%

level

25%

Mensajero scores more

25%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Mensajero

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Mensajero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza in Yaiza (Lanzarote).

Unión Sur Yaiza vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Mensajero