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Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
1/14/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Mensajero55%
×Draw24%
Unión Sur Yaiza21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.71
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.96

Mensajero creates 78% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
79%
Mensajero or Unión Sur Yaiza
76%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
45%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
30%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
82%
Mensajero 2+ goals
51%
Mensajero 3+ goals
24%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
62%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
25%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
72%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mensajero scores more
55%
level
24%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
21%

Mensajero at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza

Mensajero beat Unión Sur Yaiza 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 14, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma).