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Unión Sur Yaiza vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
9/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza40%
×Draw26%
Las Palmas II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.39
Las Palmas II
1.25

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 49 away

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.85
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.05
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw
66%
Unión Sur Yaiza or Las Palmas II
74%
Draw or Las Palmas II
60%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
19%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
75%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
40%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
71%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
36%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
54%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
40%
level
26%
Las Palmas II scores more
34%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unión Sur Yaiza 2 – 1 Las Palmas II

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Las Palmas II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza in Lanzarote.