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Las Palmas II vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Palmas II64%
×Draw22%
Unión Sur Yaiza14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.81
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.69

Las Palmas II creates 162% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
86%
Las Palmas II or Unión Sur Yaiza
78%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
36%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
38%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
84%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
54%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
50%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
15%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
82%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.81

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
64%
level
22%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
14%

Las Palmas II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas II 1 – 3 Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Las Palmas II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.