Unión Sur Yaiza 2–1 Estrella: Result & Stats

Unión Sur Yaiza

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Estrella

3/18/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza67%

×Draw19%

Estrella13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión Sur YaizaExpected goals in this matchEstrella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.81

Unión Sur Yaiza

2.12

Estrella

0.81

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 162% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 32 away

1.85

creates per match

0.56

1.05

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.85

Estrella

0.56

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.05

Estrella

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Estrella →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw

87%

Unión Sur Yaiza or Estrella

81%

Draw or Estrella

33%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

43%

Estrella wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

88%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

62%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

35%

Estrella 1+ goals

56%

Estrella 2+ goals

19%

Estrella 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

84%

Estrella (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

Estrella attack 0.56 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

67%

level

19%

Estrella scores more

13%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff