Estrella 2–2 Unión Sur Yaiza: Result & Stats

Estrella

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Unión Sur Yaiza

Aday 90+2' (pen)

Eduardo Cruz 42'

Javi Melián 62', 8'

11/19/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 10Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Estrella36%

×Draw28%

Unión Sur Yaiza36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrellaExpected goals in this matchUnión Sur Yaiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.16

Estrella

1.15

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 65 away

0.97

creates per match

0.88

1.44

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Estrella

0.97

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.88

allows per match

Estrella

1.44

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Estrella or draw

64%

Estrella or Unión Sur Yaiza

72%

Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza

64%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+

15%

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals

68%

Estrella 2+ goals

32%

Estrella 3+ goals

11%

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

69%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

32%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)

50%

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Estrella scores more

36%

level

28%

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

36%

Estrella at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

62'

64'

64'

Iarley Santana← Jaime

70'

A. Fernández← Ayoze

70'

Eleder Marrero← Iker

70'

Aridany← Acoran Hernandez

74'

Juanca← Pedro Relloso

74'

Joel Caballero← A. Yunes

85'

Uri← Javi Melián

90+2'

AdayPenalty

Estrella

Unión

Floro

Rosa

Tana

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Jero Santana

64'▲Omar Diallo←▼Aitor

64'▲Iarley Santana←▼Jaime

70'▲A. Fernández←▼Ayoze

70'▲Eleder Marrero←▼Iker

74'▲Juanca←▼Pedro Relloso

Estrella substitutes

DialloSantanaFernándezMarreroJuanca

Manager: Adolfo Pérez

70'▲Aridany←▼Acoran Hernandez

74'▲Joel Caballero←▼A. Yunes

85'▲Uri←▼Javi Melián

Unión Sur Yaiza substitutes

AridanyCaballeroUri