Unión Sur Yaiza 3–0 Arucas: Result & Stats

Unión Sur Yaiza

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arucas

4/22/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza51%

×Draw24%

Arucas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión Sur YaizaExpected goals in this matchArucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.06

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.66

Arucas

1.06

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 57% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 96 away

1.85

creates per match

1.06

1.05

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.85

Arucas

1.06

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.05

Arucas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Arucas →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw

76%

Unión Sur Yaiza or Arucas

76%

Draw or Arucas

49%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

27%

Arucas wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

81%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

49%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

23%

Arucas 1+ goals

65%

Arucas 2+ goals

29%

Arucas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

68%

Arucas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Arucas attack 1.06 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

51%

level

24%

Arucas scores more

24%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff