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Arucas vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Arucas47%
×Draw27%
Unión Sur Yaiza26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.40
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.95

Arucas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 65 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
74%
Arucas or Unión Sur Yaiza
73%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
53%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
23%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
75%
Arucas 2+ goals
41%
Arucas 3+ goals
17%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
61%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
25%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
65%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arucas scores more
47%
level
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
26%

Arucas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Arucas 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Arucas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.