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Union Sunchales vs Sol de Mayo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
4/7/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Sunchales49%
×Draw28%
Sol de Mayo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sunchales
1.33
Sol de Mayo
0.81

Union Sunchales creates 64% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 112 away

creates per match

Union Sunchales
1.22
Sol de Mayo
0.62

allows per match

Union Sunchales
1.01
Sol de Mayo
1.44

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par
Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Sol de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw
77%
Union Sunchales or Sol de Mayo
72%
Draw or Sol de Mayo
51%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+
23%
Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals
74%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
38%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
15%
Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
56%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
19%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
68%
Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Sol de Mayo away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sol de Mayo attack 0.62 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Union Sunchales scores more
49%
level
28%
Sol de Mayo scores more
23%

Union Sunchales at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Union Sunchales 1–1 Sol de Mayo

Union Sunchales and Sol de Mayo drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe).