Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sol de Mayo vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
3/31/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Sol De Mayo (Viedma, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sol de Mayo50%
×Draw26%
Union Sunchales24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sol de Mayo
1.51
Union Sunchales
0.96

Sol de Mayo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sol de Mayo
1.37
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Sol de Mayo
1.14
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Sol de Mayo+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de Mayo ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sol de Mayo or draw
76%
Sol de Mayo or Union Sunchales
74%
Draw or Union Sunchales
50%

Winning margin

Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
25%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
78%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
44%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
19%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
62%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
25%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
68%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de Mayo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de Mayo attack 1.37 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sol de Mayo scores more
50%
level
26%
Union Sunchales scores more
24%

Sol de Mayo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sol de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sol de Mayo vs Union Sunchales

Sol de Mayo beat Union Sunchales 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Sol De Mayo (Viedma, Provincia de Río Negro).