Union Sunchales 0–0 Sol de América: Result & Stats

Union Sunchales

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sol de América

6/23/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 4 - 15Estadio Unión de Sunchales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Union Sunchales46%

×Draw29%

Sol de América25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SunchalesExpected goals in this matchSol de América

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.82

Union Sunchales

1.24

Sol de América

0.82

Union Sunchales creates 51% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

1.01

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Union Sunchales

1.21

Sol de América

0.63

allows per match

Union Sunchales

1.01

Sol de América

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Sol de América+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Sol de América →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw

75%

Union Sunchales or Sol de América

71%

Draw or Sol de América

54%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

21%

Sol de América wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

71%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

35%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

13%

Sol de América 1+ goals

56%

Sol de América 2+ goals

20%

Sol de América 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

65%

Sol de América (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 85 matches

Sol de América away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.21 + Sol de América defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sol de América attack 0.63 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Sunchales scores more

46%

level

29%

Sol de América scores more

25%

Union Sunchales at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

F. Mendoza← B. Di Martino

60'

L. Campero← G. Giraudo Lucca

64'

F. Picone← L. González

77'

J. Castellano← F. Cima

77'

M. Barzola← I. Blanco

77'

R. Flumian← L. Estrada

Union

Sol

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Alomo

64'▲F. Picone←▼L. González

77'▲J. Castellano←▼F. Cima

77'▲M. Barzola←▼I. Blanco

Union Sunchales substitutes

PiconeCastellanoBarzola

Manager: A. Paredes

60'▲F. Mendoza←▼B. Di Martino

60'▲L. Campero←▼G. Giraudo Lucca

77'▲R. Flumian←▼L. Estrada

Sol de América substitutes

MendozaCamperoFlumian