Sol de América 3–1 Union Sunchales: Result & Stats

Sol de América

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Sunchales

B. Di Martino 60', 56'

J. Romero 27'

G. Romero 90'

4/28/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 4 - 6Estadio Club Sol de América Formosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sol de América59%

×Draw25%

Union Sunchales16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sol de AméricaExpected goals in this matchUnion Sunchales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.69

Sol de América

1.61

Union Sunchales

0.69

Sol de América creates 133% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 83 away

1.58

creates per match

0.77

0.60

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sol de América

1.58

Union Sunchales

0.77

allows per match

Sol de América

0.60

Union Sunchales

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sol de América+0.00on par

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de América ↓

Union Sunchales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sol de América or draw

84%

Sol de América or Union Sunchales

75%

Draw or Union Sunchales

41%

Winning margin

Sol de América wins by 2+

33%

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sol de América 1+ goals

80%

Sol de América 2+ goals

48%

Sol de América 3+ goals

22%

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

50%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

15%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sol de América (draw refunded)

79%

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de América at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.60 · 52 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.65 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de América attack 1.58 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Union Sunchales attack 0.77 + Sol de América defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sol de América scores more

59%

level

25%

Union Sunchales scores more

16%

Sol de América at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sol de América will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Villasanti← M. Ojeda

27'

J. Romero

56'

B. Di Martino

60'

G. Romero← M. Suárez

60'

G. Núñez← F. González

60'

B. Di Martino

70'

L. Estrada← B. Di Martino

70'

L. Campero← R. Riquelme

70'

M. Rojo← N. Fratto

70'

F. Picone← M. Barzola

84'

J. Martínez← S. Albarracín

84'

G. Giraudo Lucca← M. Mendoza

90'

G. Romero

Sol

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Martino

Manager: A. Paredes

21'▲A. Villasanti←▼M. Ojeda

70'▲L. Estrada←▼B. Di Martino

70'▲L. Campero←▼R. Riquelme

84'▲J. Martínez←▼S. Albarracín

84'▲G. Giraudo Lucca←▼M. Mendoza

Sol de América substitutes

VillasantiEstradaCamperoMartínezLucca

Manager: M. Ferrero

60'▲G. Romero←▼M. Suárez

60'▲G. Núñez←▼F. González

70'▲M. Rojo←▼N. Fratto

70'▲F. Picone←▼M. Barzola

Union Sunchales substitutes

RomeroNúñezRojoPicone

Torneo Federal A: Sol de América 3–1 Union Sunchales

Sol de América beat Union Sunchales 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 28, 2024.

Goals: J. Romero (27'), B. Di Martino (56', 60'), G. Romero (90').

The match was played at Estadio Club Sol de América Formosa in Ciudad de Formosa, Provincia de Formosa.

Sol de América vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Sol de América 3–1 Union Sunchales