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Union Sunchales vs Club Atlético Güemes — Torneo Federal A 2018

Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
1/26/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · North - 16Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Sunchales38%
×Draw28%
Club Atlético Güemes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sunchales
1.18
Club Atlético Güemes
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

Union Sunchales
1.22
Club Atlético Güemes
1.21

allows per match

Union Sunchales
1.01
Club Atlético Güemes
1.14

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par
Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Club Atlético Güemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw
66%
Union Sunchales or Club Atlético Güemes
72%
Draw or Club Atlético Güemes
62%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+
16%
Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals
69%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
33%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
12%
Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
67%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
30%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
52%
Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Club Atlético Güemes away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Club Atlético Güemes attack 1.21 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Sunchales scores more
38%
level
28%
Club Atlético Güemes scores more
34%

Union Sunchales at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Sunchales vs Club Atlético Güemes

Union Sunchales and Club Atlético Güemes drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe).