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Club Atlético Güemes vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
8/31/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · North - 1Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Club Atlético Güemes60%
×Draw25%
Union Sunchales15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Atlético Güemes
1.59
Union Sunchales
0.66

Club Atlético Güemes creates 141% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Club Atlético Güemes
1.53
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Club Atlético Güemes
0.53
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atlético Güemes ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Club Atlético Güemes or draw
85%
Club Atlético Güemes or Union Sunchales
75%
Draw or Union Sunchales
40%

Winning margin

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
33%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
80%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
47%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
21%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
48%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
14%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
80%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atlético Güemes at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atlético Güemes attack 1.53 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Atlético Güemes scores more
60%
level
25%
Union Sunchales scores more
15%

Club Atlético Güemes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Atlético Güemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Club Atlético Güemes 0–2 Union Sunchales

Union Sunchales beat Club Atlético Güemes 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero).