Union Sunchales 2–0 Chaco For Ever: Result & Stats

Union Sunchales

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chaco For Ever

2/23/2020

Torneo Federal A · North - 20Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Union Sunchales38%

×Draw30%

Chaco For Ever32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SunchalesExpected goals in this matchChaco For Ever

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.98

Union Sunchales

1.10

Chaco For Ever

0.98

Union Sunchales creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 42 away

1.22

creates per match

0.95

1.01

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Union Sunchales

1.22

Chaco For Ever

0.95

allows per match

Union Sunchales

1.01

Chaco For Ever

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Chaco For Ever →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw

68%

Union Sunchales or Chaco For Ever

70%

Draw or Chaco For Ever

62%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

15%

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

67%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

30%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

10%

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals

62%

Chaco For Ever 2+ goals

26%

Chaco For Ever 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

54%

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chaco For Ever attack 0.95 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Sunchales scores more

38%

level

30%

Chaco For Ever scores more

32%

Union Sunchales at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff