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Chaco For Ever vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
6/27/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 9Estadio Juan Alberto García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chaco For Ever58%
×Draw24%
Union Sunchales17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaco For Ever
1.64
Union Sunchales
0.77

Chaco For Ever creates 113% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Chaco For Ever
1.62
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Chaco For Ever
0.76
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaco For Ever ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chaco For Ever or draw
83%
Chaco For Ever or Union Sunchales
76%
Draw or Union Sunchales
42%

Winning margin

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
32%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
81%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
49%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
23%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
54%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
18%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
77%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaco For Ever at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaco For Ever attack 1.62 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chaco For Ever scores more
58%
level
24%
Union Sunchales scores more
17%

Chaco For Ever at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chaco For Ever will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Chaco For Ever 2–2 Union Sunchales

Chaco For Ever and Union Sunchales drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Alberto García in Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco.