Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Standard Liege

Union St. Gilloise

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Standard Liege

F. Ivanović 82'

P. David 55', 20'

3/9/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 29Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Union St. Gilloise57%

×Draw23%

Standard Liege19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.91

Union St. Gilloise

1.75

Standard Liege

0.91

Union St. Gilloise creates 92% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

2.02

creates per match

1.05

0.77

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.02

Standard Liege

1.05

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.77

Standard Liege

1.49

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more

Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

81%

Union St. Gilloise or Standard Liege

77%

Draw or Standard Liege

43%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

32%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

83%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

52%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

25%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

60%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

23%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

75%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.75

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

57%

level

23%

Standard Liege scores more

19%

Union St. Gilloise at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. David

Union St. Gilloise · F

8.6

Match Events

14'

F. Leysen← K. Machida

20'

P. David↳ F. Ivanović

43'

Christian Burgess

51'

Mathias Rasmussen

55'

P. David↳ M. Rasmussen

56'

Aiden O'Neill

59'

Aiden O'Neill

59'

Aiden O'Neill

61'

B. Bolingoli← I. Camara

62'

N. Ngoy← I. Hautekiet

66'

H. Teklab← P. David

66'

K. Van de Perre← A. Ait El Hadj

66'

I. Karamoko← D. Eckert Ayensa

75'

S. Alexandropoulos← L. Amani

77'

Henry Lawrence

82'

F. Ivanović↳ H. Teklab

84'

M. Giger← S. Boufal

84'

R. Sykes← A. Khalaili

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionStandard

Overview

62%Possession38%

9Total Shots6

1.47Expected Goals (xG)0.46

1Corners4

14Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots6

3On Target2

3Off Target4

3Blocked0

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

571Total Passes351

491Accurate Passes273

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

-1.25Goals Prevented-1.25

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1