Standard Liege 0–0 Union St. Gilloise

Standard Liege

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union St. Gilloise

9/20/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 8Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Standard Liege28%

×Draw25%

Union St. Gilloise47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.59

Standard Liege

1.17

Union St. Gilloise

1.59

Union St. Gilloise creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

1.56

1.62

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.20

Union St. Gilloise

1.56

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.62

Union St. Gilloise

1.14

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Standard Liege-0.30scores less

Union St. Gilloise-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

53%

Standard Liege or Union St. Gilloise

75%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

72%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

11%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

69%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

33%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

11%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

80%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

47%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

37%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.14 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.20 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Standard Liege defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Standard Liege scores more

28%

level

25%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

47%

Union St. Gilloise at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

M. Epolo

Standard Liege · G

9.2

Match Events

56'

D. Eckert Ayensa← S. Benjdida

56'

I. Price← L. Kuavita

68'

S. Boufal← M. Rasmussen

74'

H. Lawrence← M. Fossey

74'

M. Badamosi← A. Zeqiri

82'

E. Kabangu← M. Fuseini

83'

Noah Sadiki

84'

Boško Šutalo

86'

S. Alexandropoulos← M. Bulat

89'

P. David← E. Kabangu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StandardUnion

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots18

0.58Expected Goals (xG)2.07

1Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots18

3On Target7

2Off Target7

3Blocked4

3Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

286Total Passes525

188Accurate Passes432

66%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

0.65Goals Prevented0.65

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1