Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Oostende: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oostende

D. Undav 83'

M. D'Arpino 9'

3/18/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 32Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Union St. Gilloise60%

×Draw22%

Oostende18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchOostende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.91

Union St. Gilloise

1.90

Oostende

0.91

Union St. Gilloise creates 109% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 85 away

1.98

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

1.98

Oostende

1.00

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.81

Oostende

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Oostende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

82%

Union St. Gilloise or Oostende

78%

Draw or Oostende

40%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

36%

Oostende wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

85%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

56%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

29%

Oostende 1+ goals

60%

Oostende 2+ goals

23%

Oostende 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

77%

Oostende (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.98 + Oostende defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.90

Oostende attack 1.00 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

60%

level

22%

Oostende scores more

18%

Union St. Gilloise at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. D'Arpino

Oostende · M

8.6

Match Events

9'

M. D'Arpino↳ C. McGeehan

14'

15'

24'

44'

46'

K. Mitoma← B. Nieuwkoop

59'

Álex Millán← K. Kozłowski

60'

D. Marcq← L. Amani

76'

A. Amade← T. Ambrose

78'

G. François← J. Bager

78'

K. Machida← S. Van der Heyden

83'

D. Undav↳ G. François

89'

Maxime D'Arpino

90+2'

Alfons Amade

90+4'

R. D'Haese← M. Gueye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionOostende

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots7

9Corners1

17Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target4

9Off Target2

2Blocked1

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

543Total Passes262

438Accurate Passes146

81%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3