Oostende 1–7 Union St. Gilloise: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 4

Union St. Gilloise

T. Ambrose 23'

D. Undav 80', 60', 16', 5'

C. Burgess 70', 45+3'

C. Nielsen 31'

11/21/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 15Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende25%

×Draw23%

Union St. Gilloise52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.79

Oostende

1.16

Union St. Gilloise

1.79

Union St. Gilloise creates 54% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 100 away

1.34

creates per match

1.80

1.78

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

Union St. Gilloise

1.80

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

Union St. Gilloise

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

48%

Oostende or Union St. Gilloise

77%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

75%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

10%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

69%

Oostende 2+ goals

32%

Oostende 3+ goals

11%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

83%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

53%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

32%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.80 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oostende scores more

25%

level

23%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

52%

Union St. Gilloise at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Undav

Union St. Gilloise · F

9.9

Match Events

5'

D. Undav

16'

D. Undav↳ B. Nieuwkoop

23'

31'

45+3'

46'

46'

V. Koziello← N. Bätzner

46'

Kenny Rocha Santos← A. Amade

53'

R. D'Haese← S. Wylin

54'

Brecht Capon

60'

D. Undav↳ D. Vanzeir

70'

K. Mitoma← L. Lapoussin

70'

C. Burgess↳ C. Nielsen

77'

J. Bager← C. Burgess

77'

G. François← B. Nieuwkoop

80'

D. Undav↳ D. Vanzeir

85'

L. Amani← T. Teuma

85'

F. Avenatti← D. Undav

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeUnion

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots16

5Corners5

11Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots16

1On Target8

4Off Target3

1Blocked5

4Inside Box14

2Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

458Total Passes467

346Accurate Passes362

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3