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Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kortrijk
Kortrijk
F. Ivanović 76'
João Silva 51' (OG)
M. Fuseini 17'
9/29/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 9Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Union St. Gilloise76%
×Draw15%
Kortrijk8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
2.50
Kortrijk
0.70

Union St. Gilloise creates 257% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
2.29
Kortrijk
0.86

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.54
Kortrijk
2.71

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par
Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Kortrijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
92%
Union St. Gilloise or Kortrijk
85%
Draw or Kortrijk
24%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
54%
Kortrijk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
92%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
71%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
45%
Kortrijk 1+ goals
50%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
16%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
90%
Kortrijk (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.54 · 35 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.29 + Kortrijk defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kortrijk attack 0.86 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
76%
level
15%
Kortrijk scores more
8%

Union St. Gilloise at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. IvanovićUnion St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise · F
9.3

Match Events

5'
Mounaim El Idrissy
17'
M. Fuseini↳ F. Ivanović
25'
Alessio Castro-Montes
33'
Nayel Mehssatou
50'
Ousseynou Niang
51'
João SilvaOwn goal
56'
B. Messaoudi← R. Šimić
56'
H. Fujii← R. Alebiosu
56'
B. Dejaegere← M. Mampassi
64'
L. Amani← O. Niang
64'
C. Terho← N. Sadiki
65'
Abdelkahar Kadri
74'
T. Kaneko← M. El Idrissy
76'
F. Ivanović↳ C. Terho
81'
A. Sissako← T. Takamine
82'
K. Rodríguez← F. Ivanović
84'
A. Khalaili← M. Fuseini
85'
S. Boufal← M. Rasmussen

Possession

52%Union

Shots

17Union

Pass accuracy

52%Union

Statistics

UnionKortrijk
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots4
2.45Expected Goals (xG)0.33
6Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots4
5On Target2
7Off Target2
5Blocked0
11Inside Box2
6Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
424Total Passes384
347Accurate Passes294
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
-0.82Goals Prevented-0.82
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Jupiler Pro League: Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Kortrijk

Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Fuseini (17'), João Silva (51' o.g.), F. Ivanović (76').

Union St. Gilloise controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.