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Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kortrijk
Kortrijk
L. Lapoussin 54'
K. Rodríguez 45+4', 45'
11/12/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 14Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Union St. Gilloise76%
×Draw15%
Kortrijk8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
2.50
Kortrijk
0.70

Union St. Gilloise creates 257% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
2.29
Kortrijk
0.86

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.54
Kortrijk
2.71

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par
Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Kortrijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
92%
Union St. Gilloise or Kortrijk
85%
Draw or Kortrijk
24%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
54%
Kortrijk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
92%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
71%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
45%
Kortrijk 1+ goals
50%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
16%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
90%
Kortrijk (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.54 · 35 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.29 + Kortrijk defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kortrijk attack 0.86 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
76%
level
15%
Kortrijk scores more
8%

Union St. Gilloise at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
K. RodríguezUnion St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise · F
8.9

Match Events

6'
Abdelkahar Kadri
14'
Fedde Leysen
23'
Loic Lapoussin
36'
N. Sadiki← C. Vanhoutte
45'
K. Rodríguez
45+4'
K. Rodríguez↳ Cameron Puertas
54'
L. Lapoussin↳ Cameron Puertas
62'
M. Bruno← A. Mighten
62'
F. Avenatti← D. Henen
63'
I. Davies← M. El Idrissy
65'
E. Kabangu← L. Amani
65'
D. Eckert Ayensa← K. Rodríguez
66'
H. Teklab← L. Lapoussin
76'
A. Sissako← A. Kadri
82'
K. Mac Allister← C. Terho
82'
D. Mbayo← S. Ojo

Possession

51%Union

Shots

18Union

Pass accuracy

51%Union

Statistics

UnionKortrijk
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots11
2.98Expected Goals (xG)0.48
6Corners6
10Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots11
8On Target1
8Off Target3
2Blocked7
11Inside Box4
7Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
477Total Passes441
386Accurate Passes345
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
6Offsides1

Match Recap: Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk

Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 12, 2023.

Goals: K. Rodríguez (45', 45+4'), L. Lapoussin (54').

Union St. Gilloise controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.