Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Genk: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Genk

C. Burgess 67'

5/3/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 7Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Union St. Gilloise53%

×Draw23%

Genk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchGenk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.08

Union St. Gilloise

1.77

Genk

1.08

Union St. Gilloise creates 64% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

2.02

creates per match

1.40

0.77

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.02

Genk

1.40

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.77

Genk

1.53

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more

Genk+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Genk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

77%

Union St. Gilloise or Genk

77%

Draw or Genk

47%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

30%

Genk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

83%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

53%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

26%

Genk 1+ goals

66%

Genk 2+ goals

29%

Genk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

70%

Genk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

Genk away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + Genk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Genk attack 1.40 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

53%

level

23%

Genk scores more

23%

Union St. Gilloise at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Burgess

Union St. Gilloise · D

8.2

Match Events

19'

Promise DavidMissed penalty

41'

Charles Vanhoutte

43'

Ibrahima Sory Bangoura

45+1'

Promise David

51'

Ibrahima Sory Bangoura

51'

Ibrahima Sory Bangoura

56'

Kamiel Van De Perre

60'

A. Ait El Hadj← K. Van de Perre

60'

A. Castro-Montes← O. Niang

66'

Kevin Mac Allister

67'

C. Burgess↳ C. Vanhoutte

71'

Christian Burgess

82'

M. Fuseini← P. David

87'

Y. Sor← J. Steuckers

87'

K. Karetsas← P. Hrošovský

87'

N. Adedeji-Sternberg← C. Bonsu Baah

90+5'

Bryan Heynen

90+2'

Zakaria El Ouahdi

90+3'

M. Rasmussen← F. Ivanović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionGenk

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots3

1.66Expected Goals (xG)0.77

4Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots3

4On Target1

4Off Target1

3Blocked1

8Inside Box3

3Outside Box0

Passing

47%Possession53%

370Total Passes410

285Accurate Passes316

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.21Goals Prevented0.21

Discipline

17Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1