Genk vs Union St. Gilloise — Jupiler Pro League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 27+ matches
Genk41%
Union St. Gilloise34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Genk creates 13% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Genk ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Genk at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches
Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Genk attack 1.82 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48
Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Genk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Genk substitutes
Genk
Club Brugge KV
Standard Liege
Anderlecht
Gent
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Kortrijk
Charleroi
Royal Excel Mouscron
Zulte Waregem
AS Eupen
Cercle Brugge
Oostende
Waasland-beveren
LokerenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Genk host Union St. Gilloise on Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027 season.
Jupiler Pro League: Genk 1–2 Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on April 20, 2025.
Goals: P. David (42' pen, 50'), T. Arokodare (90+3').
Genk controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 10.
The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.