Union St. Gilloise 5–0 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beerschot VA

4/10/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 34Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Union St. Gilloise66%

×Draw20%

Beerschot VA14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.78

Union St. Gilloise

2.00

Beerschot VA

0.78

Union St. Gilloise creates 156% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

2.09

creates per match

0.77

0.78

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.09

Beerschot VA

0.77

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.78

Beerschot VA

1.91

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.14scores more

Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

86%

Union St. Gilloise or Beerschot VA

80%

Draw or Beerschot VA

34%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

41%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

86%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

59%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

32%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

54%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

18%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

83%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.78 · 31 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.09 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

66%

level

20%

Beerschot VA scores more

14%

Union St. Gilloise at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

A. Lejoly

Beerschot VA · G

8.7

Match Events

67'

K. Kozłowski← D. Marcq

71'

K. Machida

71'

R. Vaca← I. Sebaoui

76'

T. Pietermaat← I. Coulibaly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionBeerschot

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots5

13Corners1

10Fouls4

Shots

19Total Shots5

7On Target1

7Off Target2

5Blocked2

15Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

417Total Passes350

329Accurate Passes254

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3