Beerschot VA 0–4 Union St. Gilloise: Result & Stats

Beerschot VA

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Union St. Gilloise

1/26/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 23Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA25%

×Draw23%

Union St. Gilloise51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beerschot VAExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.77

Beerschot VA

1.17

Union St. Gilloise

1.77

Union St. Gilloise creates 51% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 100 away

1.36

creates per match

1.80

1.74

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Beerschot VA

1.36

Union St. Gilloise

1.80

allows per match

Beerschot VA

1.74

Union St. Gilloise

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw

49%

Beerschot VA or Union St. Gilloise

77%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

75%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

10%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

69%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

33%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

11%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

83%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

53%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

33%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.80 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beerschot VA scores more

25%

level

23%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

51%

Union St. Gilloise at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff