Union St. Florian 1–1 Pöttinger Grieskirchen

Union St. Florian

FT

1 – 1

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

9/18/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 7Sportpark St. Florian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union St. Florian50%

×Draw23%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. FlorianExpected goals in this matchPöttinger Grieskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.31

Union St. Florian

1.84

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.31

Union St. Florian creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.40

creates per match

1.28

1.33

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Union St. Florian

1.40

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.28

allows per match

Union St. Florian

1.33

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Florian ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Union St. Florian or draw

73%

Union St. Florian or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

77%

Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

50%

Winning margin

Union St. Florian wins by 2+

28%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union St. Florian 1+ goals

84%

Union St. Florian 2+ goals

55%

Union St. Florian 3+ goals

28%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

73%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

38%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)

65%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Florian at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Florian attack 1.40 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + Union St. Florian defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union St. Florian scores more

50%

level

23%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

27%

Union St. Florian at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union St. Florian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff