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Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
CANC
14:30
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
4/17/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 22Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen43%
×Draw23%
Union St. Florian35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.81
Union St. Florian
1.62

Pöttinger Grieskirchen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.61
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.14
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw
65%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen or Union St. Florian
77%
Draw or Union St. Florian
57%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
23%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
84%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
54%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
27%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
80%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
48%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
55%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
43%
level
23%
Union St. Florian scores more
35%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pöttinger Grieskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pöttinger Grieskirchen face Union St. Florian (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with Pöttinger Grieskirchen hosting Union St. Florian. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pöttinger Grieskirchen host Union St. Florian at Fröling-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.