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Union Schafhausen vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
5/15/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Sportplatz Im Kuhlert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Schafhausen27%
×Draw22%
Hennef 0551%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Schafhausen
1.42
Hennef 05
2.00

Hennef 05 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 81 away

creates per match

Union Schafhausen
0.97
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Union Schafhausen
2.03
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw
49%
Union Schafhausen or Hennef 05
78%
Draw or Hennef 05
73%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
12%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
76%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
41%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
17%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
86%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
59%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
35%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more
27%
level
22%
Hennef 05 scores more
51%

Hennef 05 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Schafhausen vs Hennef 05

Hennef 05 beat Union Schafhausen 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Kuhlert in Heinsberg.