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Hennef 05 vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hennef 05
Hennef 05
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
11/5/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 13Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hennef 0560%
×Draw20%
Union Schafhausen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hennef 05
2.21
Union Schafhausen
1.18

Hennef 05 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 29 away

creates per match

Hennef 05
1.79
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Hennef 05
1.39
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw
80%
Hennef 05 or Union Schafhausen
80%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
40%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+
38%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals
89%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
65%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
38%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
69%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
33%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
76%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.21

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hennef 05 scores more
60%
level
20%
Union Schafhausen scores more
20%

Hennef 05 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hennef 05 vs Union Schafhausen

Hennef 05 and Union Schafhausen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.