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Union Schafhausen vs Germania Teveren — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Germania Teveren
Germania Teveren
8/13/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 1Sportplatz Im Kuhlert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Schafhausen49%
×Draw20%
Germania Teveren31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Schafhausen
2.32
Germania Teveren
1.85

Union Schafhausen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union Schafhausen
0.97
Germania Teveren
1.67

allows per match

Union Schafhausen
2.03
Germania Teveren
3.67

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par
Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

Germania Teveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw
69%
Union Schafhausen or Germania Teveren
80%
Draw or Germania Teveren
51%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
29%
Germania Teveren wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
90%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
67%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
40%
Germania Teveren 1+ goals
84%
Germania Teveren 2+ goals
55%
Germania Teveren 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
61%
Germania Teveren (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Germania Teveren away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Germania Teveren defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.32

Germania Teveren attack 1.67 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more
49%
level
20%
Germania Teveren scores more
31%

Union Schafhausen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Schafhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Union Schafhausen 0–6 Germania Teveren

Germania Teveren beat Union Schafhausen 6-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Kuhlert in Heinsberg.