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Germania Teveren vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Germania Teveren
Germania Teveren
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
4/11/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 16Heidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Teveren41%
×Draw23%
Union Schafhausen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Teveren
1.78
Union Schafhausen
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Germania Teveren
0.93
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Germania Teveren
2.33
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Germania Teveren+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Teveren ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Germania Teveren or draw
64%
Germania Teveren or Union Schafhausen
77%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
59%

Winning margin

Germania Teveren wins by 2+
22%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Germania Teveren 1+ goals
83%
Germania Teveren 2+ goals
53%
Germania Teveren 3+ goals
26%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
81%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
49%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)
53%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Teveren at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Teveren attack 0.93 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.78

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Germania Teveren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Germania Teveren scores more
41%
level
23%
Union Schafhausen scores more
36%

Germania Teveren at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Germania Teveren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Germania Teveren 1–2 Union Schafhausen

Union Schafhausen beat Germania Teveren 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 11, 2024.

The match was played at Heidestadion in Geilenkirchen.