Union Schafhausen 2–1 BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

Union Schafhausen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

10/14/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 10Sportplatz Driescher Kämpen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Schafhausen33%

×Draw23%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SchafhausenExpected goals in this matchBCV Glesch / Paffendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.76

Union Schafhausen

1.48

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.76

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

0.97

creates per match

1.50

2.03

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Union Schafhausen

0.97

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.50

allows per match

Union Schafhausen

2.03

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw

56%

Union Schafhausen or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

77%

Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

67%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+

15%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals

77%

Union Schafhausen 2+ goals

43%

Union Schafhausen 3+ goals

19%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals

83%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals

52%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)

42%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more

33%

level

23%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more

44%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BCV Glesch / Paffendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff