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BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
CANC
13:00
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
4/14/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 25Kunstrasenplatz Glesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf50%
×Draw22%
Union Schafhausen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.01
Union Schafhausen
1.46

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf creates 38% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 29 away

creates per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.40
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.95
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or draw
72%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or Union Schafhausen
78%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
50%

Winning margin

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
29%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
87%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
59%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
32%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
77%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
43%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
64%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.01

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
50%
level
22%
Union Schafhausen scores more
28%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BCV Glesch / Paffendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Union Schafhausen — Match Preview

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf face Union Schafhausen on April 14, 2024 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf host Union Schafhausen at Kunstrasenplatz Glesch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.