Union Santa Fe 0–0 Tigre: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tigre

7/26/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Union Santa Fe45%

×Draw29%

Tigre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchTigre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.88

Union Santa Fe

1.24

Tigre

0.88

Union Santa Fe creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.08

creates per match

1.13

0.62

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.08

Tigre

1.13

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.62

Tigre

1.40

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Union Santa Fe-0.20scores less

Tigre-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Tigre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

74%

Union Santa Fe or Tigre

71%

Draw or Tigre

55%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

20%

Tigre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

71%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

35%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

13%

Tigre 1+ goals

59%

Tigre 2+ goals

22%

Tigre 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

63%

Tigre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 8 matches

Tigre away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.08 + Tigre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tigre attack 1.13 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

45%

level

29%

Tigre scores more

26%

Union Santa Fe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. Luduena

Union Santa Fe · D

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Rafael Profini

3'

Mauro Pittón

27'

G. Soto← M. Ortega

43'

Lucas GambaGoal cancelled

45+4'

Franco Fragapane

57'

Elías Cabrera

62'

Guillermo Soto

71'

S. Medina← E. Cabrera

71'

B. Martinez← B. Armoa

72'

M. Estigarribia← L. Gamba

78'

78'

82'

83'

83'

89'

E. Alvarez← C. Tarragona

89'

N. Paz← J. Palacios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionTigre

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots9

1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.06

10Corners0

9Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target2

1Blocked5

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

269Total Passes306

184Accurate Passes201

68%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

1.00Goals Prevented1.00

Discipline

9Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1