Union Santa Fe 0–0 Tigre: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tigre

4/16/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 12Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Union Santa Fe47%

×Draw28%

Tigre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchTigre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

Union Santa Fe

1.36

Tigre

0.92

Union Santa Fe creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.32

creates per match

1.13

0.71

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.32

Tigre

1.13

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.71

Tigre

1.40

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Union Santa Fe-0.10scores less

Tigre-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Tigre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

75%

Union Santa Fe or Tigre

72%

Draw or Tigre

53%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

22%

Tigre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

74%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

39%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

16%

Tigre 1+ goals

60%

Tigre 2+ goals

23%

Tigre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

65%

Tigre (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.71 · 18 matches

Tigre away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.32 + Tigre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tigre attack 1.13 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

47%

level

28%

Tigre scores more

25%

Union Santa Fe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Marinelli

Tigre · G

8.6

Match Events

37'

Brian Leizza

47'

Agustín Cardozo

55'

C. Zabala← A. Molinas

55'

B. Armoa← G. Flores

56'

S. Prediger← A. Cardozo

62'

T. Vecino← D. Juárez

64'

F. Colidio← B. Leizza

75'

B. Castrillón← T. González

75'

J. Mosqueira← M. Luna

75'

S. Prieto← L. Montoya

83'

F. Gerometta← F. Vera

84'

E. Cañete← E. Roldán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionTigre

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots10

7Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked3

12Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

318Total Passes358

220Accurate Passes267

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3