Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Union Santa Fe42%
San Lorenzo22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Santa Fe creates 57% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under81
- Over19
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No74
- Yes26
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Santa Fe ↓
Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.64 · 12 matches
San Lorenzo away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.69 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Santa Fe attack 1.13 + San Lorenzo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.91
San Lorenzo attack 0.53 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.58
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Union Santa Fe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Club
Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
Velez Sarsfield
IndependienteUnion Santa Fe
Tigre
Huracan
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Aldosivi
Godoy Cruz
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
Estudiantes L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
Patronato
Rosario Central
San Martin S.J.
Belgrano CordobaSan Lorenzo
Colon Santa Fe
San Martin Tucuman
Argentinos JrsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union Santa Fe host San Lorenzo on Saturday, 15 June 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2018/2019 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Union Santa Fe 2–1 San Lorenzo
Union Santa Fe beat San Lorenzo 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 15, 2024.
Goals: A. Cuello (36'), F. Pardo (79'), J. Morales (82').
Union Santa Fe controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 5.
The match was played at Estadio 15 de Abril in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.