Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo — League #1032 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Union Santa Fe48%
San Lorenzo26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Santa Fe creates 46% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Santa Fe ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches
San Lorenzo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Santa Fe attack 1.13 + San Lorenzo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46
San Lorenzo attack 1.00 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Union Santa Fe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
San Lorenzo substitutes
Racing Club
Huracan
River Plate
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Argentinos JRS
Defensa Y Justicia
Newells Old Boys
Barracas Central
Rosario Central
BanfieldUnion Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
Sarmiento Junin
Platense
Belgrano Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo RiestraSan Lorenzo
Instituto Cordoba
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Tigre
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia L.P.If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union Santa Fe host San Lorenzo on Monday, 4 September 2023 at 23:00. The match is part of the League #1032 2026/2027 season.
League #1032: Union Santa Fe 1–1 San Lorenzo
Union Santa Fe and San Lorenzo drew 1-1 in League #1032 on September 4, 2023.
Goals: A. Bareiro (25'), J. Morales (77').
Union Santa Fe controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio 15 de Abril in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.