Union Santa Fe 1–1 Junior: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Junior

F. Vera 2'

F. Vera 6' (OG)

4/6/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Santa Fe32%

×Draw35%

Junior33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

0.82

Union Santa Fe

0.81

Junior

0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.64

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

Junior

1.00

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.64

Junior

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

67%

Union Santa Fe or Junior

65%

Draw or Junior

68%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

10%

Junior wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

56%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

19%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

5%

Junior 1+ goals

56%

Junior 2+ goals

20%

Junior 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

50%

Junior (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Junior away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.00 + Junior defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Junior attack 1.00 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

32%

level

35%

Junior scores more

33%

Junior at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

I. Machuca

Union Santa Fe · M

7.6

Match Events

2'

F. Vera

6'

F. VeraOwn goal

28'

28'

42'

43'

46'

D. Giraldo← Y. Cabrera

46'

F. Viáfara← N. Castrillón

55'

55'

56'

56'

60'

E. Roldán← M. Peralta

62'

Daniel Rosero Valencia

68'

Miguel Borja

74'

Daniel Giraldo

75'

Emanuel Brítez

76'

L. Esquivel← C. Corvalán

77'

E. Cetré← M. Borja

81'

B. Blasi← F. Vera

82'

D. Juárez← J. Nardoni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionJunior

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots1

13Corners0

9Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots1

5On Target0

4Off Target1

5Blocked0

7Inside Box1

7Outside Box0

Passing

61%Possession39%

410Total Passes278

343Accurate Passes215

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards1

0Offsides3