Junior 0–4 Union Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Union Santa Fe

M. Gallegos 89'

K. Zenón 47'

J. Alvez 41'

O. Albornoz 2' (OG)

5/27/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Junior44%

×Draw26%

Union Santa Fe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchUnion Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.20

Junior

1.48

Union Santa Fe

1.20

Junior creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.75

creates per match

0.90

1.50

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Junior

1.75

Union Santa Fe

0.90

allows per match

Junior

1.50

Union Santa Fe

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Union Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Junior or draw

69%

Junior or Union Santa Fe

74%

Draw or Union Santa Fe

56%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

21%

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

77%

Junior 2+ goals

43%

Junior 3+ goals

19%

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

70%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

34%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

59%

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.75 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Union Santa Fe attack 0.90 + Junior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Junior scores more

44%

level

26%

Union Santa Fe scores more

31%

Junior at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

S. Mele

Union Santa Fe · G

8.3

Match Events

2'

O. AlbornozOwn goal

41'

J. Alvez↳ M. Luna

46'

L. González← D. Giraldo

46'

I. Machuca← M. Peralta

47'

K. Zenón↳ C. Corvalán

61'

J. Nardoni← E. Roldán

65'

C. Valencia← O. Albornoz

66'

Gabriel Fuentes

66'

Jonathan Álvez

73'

C. Esparragoza← Y. Cabrera

73'

W. Pacheco← F. Viáfara

73'

M. Gallegos← J. Alvez

73'

L. Esquivel← K. Zenón

79'

F. Sambueza← D. Moreno

81'

Emanuel Brítez

87'

E. Cañete← M. Luna

88'

Carlos Esparragoza

89'

M. Gallegos↳ J. Nardoni

90+1'

Lucas Esquivel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorUnion

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots9

6Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots9

4On Target4

7Off Target4

6Blocked1

8Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

508Total Passes223

414Accurate Passes135

81%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

7Offsides1