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Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Tigre Res. — Reserve League 2022

Unión Santa Fe Res.
Unión Santa Fe Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tigre Res.
Tigre Res.
2/27/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Unión Santa Fe Res.43%
×Draw29%
Tigre Res.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Santa Fe Res.
1.20
Tigre Res.
0.91

Unión Santa Fe Res. creates 32% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Unión Santa Fe Res.
1.15
Tigre Res.
0.89

allows per match

Unión Santa Fe Res.
0.92
Tigre Res.
1.25

finishing

Unión Santa Fe Res.+0.00on par
Tigre Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Santa Fe Res. ↓

Tigre Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unión Santa Fe Res. or draw
72%
Unión Santa Fe Res. or Tigre Res.
71%
Draw or Tigre Res.
57%

Winning margin

Unión Santa Fe Res. wins by 2+
19%
Tigre Res. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Unión Santa Fe Res. 1+ goals
70%
Unión Santa Fe Res. 2+ goals
34%
Unión Santa Fe Res. 3+ goals
12%
Tigre Res. 1+ goals
60%
Tigre Res. 2+ goals
23%
Tigre Res. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unión Santa Fe Res. (draw refunded)
60%
Tigre Res. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Santa Fe Res. at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Tigre Res. away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Santa Fe Res. attack 1.15 + Tigre Res. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tigre Res. attack 0.89 + Unión Santa Fe Res. defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unión Santa Fe Res. scores more
43%
level
29%
Tigre Res. scores more
28%

Unión Santa Fe Res. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unión Santa Fe Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Unión Santa Fe Res. 0–1 Tigre Res.

Tigre Res. beat Unión Santa Fe Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on February 27, 2024.